Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3620
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3620 · EWR → MSN
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 21%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 32%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.