Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3626 · ROC → EWR
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ROC that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from ROC are usually not late
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.