Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3627 · EWR → PWM
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at EWR that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.