Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3628
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3628 · MCI → IAD
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 9:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 20%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from MCI are often late
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.