Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3634 · ORD → BNA
departs 12:29 PM CT · arrives 2:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.