Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3638 · EWR → CMH
departs 10:38 AM ET · arrives 12:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.