Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3650
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3650 · EWR → MEM
departs 1:29 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 18%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.