Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3654 · ORF → EWR
departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±8 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.