Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3715 · BUF → EWR
departs 10:34 AM ET · arrives 11:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.