Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4344
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4344 · RDU → BNA
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 10:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.