Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4356
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4356 · JFK → ORD
departs 7:56 AM ET · arrives 9:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.