Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4359
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4359 · JFK → ORF
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 15%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.