Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4364
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4364 · BNA → LGA
departs 10:35 AM CT · arrives 2:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.