Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4367 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

YX 4367 · LGA → BOS

departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 11:53 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4367 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?