Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4389
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4389 · JFK → CLE
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLE that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.