Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4394
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4394 · CMH → LGA
departs 3:47 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 17%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.38 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.