Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4404 · LGA → BOS
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
17%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
17%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.