Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4408
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4408 · CVG → JFK
departs 11:49 AM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.61 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.