Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4408
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4408 · JFK → CVG
departs 8:40 AM ET · arrives 10:56 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.