Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4410 · LGA → PIT
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.