Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4413
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4413 · ORD → BUF
departs 6:46 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 9%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.