Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4418 · LGA → GRR
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 12:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 629 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.