Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4426 · IAH → ORD
departs 5:02 PM CT · arrives 8:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.