Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4426
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4426 · ORD → IAH
departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 4:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
1pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.