Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4430 · HYA → PHL
departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 2:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HYA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
HYA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.