Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4439 LANDED 9:33 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 4439 · BOS → BUF

took off 8:22 PM ET · landed 9:33 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4439 · BOS → BUF

Odds over time