Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4443
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4443 · IND → ORD
departs 10:35 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.