Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4446
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4446 · JFK → IND
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.