Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4455
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4455 · CMH → ORD
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from CMH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.44 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.