Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4456 · IND → JFK
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.47 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.