Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4457 · MEM → ORD
departs 6:06 PM CT · arrives 8:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from MEM are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.28 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.