Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
YX 4461 · MEM → LGA
departs 4:26 PM CT · arrives 8:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to LGA?
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On time or early
46%
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15–30 min late
0%
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30 min–1 hour late
13%
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1–2 hours late
15%
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Over 2 hours late
6%
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Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.