Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4477
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4477 · DTW → LGA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.89 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.