Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4481 · BNA → LGA
departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 8:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 45%
Mon 10/5 35%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 65% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.