Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4488 · ORD → PWM
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 11:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PWM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.