Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4497
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4497 · RDU → LGA
departs 3:54 PM ET · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 39%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.