Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4501 · RIC → LGA
departs 1:32 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.