Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4508
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4508 · LGA → STL
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.