Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4519 · DSM → ORD
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
DSM is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from DSM are usually not late
Weather at each end
DSM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.