Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4519 LANDED 11:40 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 4519 · ORD → ORF

took off 8:54 PM CT · landed 11:40 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

ORF (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4519 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time