Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4524 · XNA → LGA
departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 8:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 41%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.54 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.