Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4534 · ECP → ORD
departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 6:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 23%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.45 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.