Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4537 · ORD → STL
departs 4:13 PM CT · arrives 5:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.