Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4537 · STL → ORD
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 8:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.