Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4565 · HYA → LGA
departs 1:26 PM ET · arrives 2:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave HYA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
HYA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
HYA (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.