Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4585 · BOS → IND
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.