Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4586 · CHS → LGA
departs 6:41 AM ET · arrives 8:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
CHS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CHS are usually not late
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.