Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4587 · PIT → JFK
departs 8:51 AM ET · arrives 10:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at PIT that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.