Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4601 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

YX 4601 · IND → LGA

departs 12:23 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±7 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4601 · IND → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?