Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4602
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4602 · MVY → PHL
departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 12:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 18%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from MVY are usually not late
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.